Why Are Nottingham Forest Thriving This Season – And Can It Last?
Nottingham Forest has emerged as one of the surprises of the Premier League this season, climbing to third in the table, their highest position since 1998. Comparisons to Leicester City’s miraculous title win in 2016 are already being made. But what’s behind Forest’s impressive start, and can they maintain this momentum?
05 NOV
A Dream Start
Forest’s current record of five wins, four draws, and just one defeat mirrors Leicester’s opening 10-game tally in their title-winning 2015-16 campaign. They’ve achieved this with a mix of solid defense and clinical finishing:
- Chris Wood’s Form: The New Zealand striker has been the talisman, scoring eight of Forest’s 14 goals. His conversion rate (32.8%) and overperformance on expected goals (18 goals against an xG of 14.04) underline his efficiency.
- Defensive Solidity: Forest has the second-best defense in the league, conceding only seven goals. Goalkeeper Matz Sels has kept the most clean sheets alongside Alisson Becker and Andre Onana. Key defensive additions, such as Nikola Milenkovic, have shored up a previously leaky backline.
Tactical Evolution Under Nuno Espírito Santo
Nuno Espírito Santo’s appointment last December raised some eyebrows, but the Portuguese manager has steadily transformed Forest. His meticulous planning and disciplined tactics have brought structure to the team, building on the foundation laid by predecessor Steve Cooper.
- Set-Piece Mastery: Last season, Forest’s fragility from set-pieces was a major concern, conceding 23 goals in such situations. This season, they’ve let in just one, with an xG against of 1.23—the best in the league.
- Balanced Squad Building: Unlike the chaotic summer of 2022, which saw Forest sign 22 players, this year’s window was more focused. Key signings like Milenkovic and Elliot Anderson have significantly improved the squad’s quality.
The Challenges Ahead
While Forest’s rise has been remarkable, there are reasons to be cautious about their staying power:
- Fixture Difficulty: Their next 10 games are among the toughest in the league, including trips to Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United. These matches will be a true test of their resilience.
- Over-Performance Indicators: Forest’s expected points model suggests they are over-performing their game statistics by 2.23 points.
- Inconsistent Opponents: Five of their wins have come against teams in the bottom seven, raising questions about how they will fare against top-tier competition.
What’s Working in Their Favor?
- Chris Wood’s Consistency: If Wood maintains his goal-scoring form, Forest can continue to punch above their weight.
- Defensive Strength: A tight defense often defines successful teams, and Forest’s improvement in this area bodes well.
- Momentum: A three-game winning streak has given the team confidence, and their ability to claim a victory at Anfield against leaders Liverpool highlights their potential to compete at the highest level.
Nottingham Forest’s transformation from relegation battlers to top-four contenders is one of the season’s most compelling stories. While their current form has echoes of Leicester’s fairy tale, their upcoming fixtures will likely reveal whether they are genuine challengers or simply riding a wave of early-season momentum.
If Forest can navigate the next few months with their defensive solidity intact and Chris Wood firing, a European spot could be well within their reach. However, sustaining this form through a tougher schedule will require more than just individual brilliance—it will demand consistency, depth, and perhaps a bit of luck.
